Immigration Expectations under a Second Trump Administration

Effective January 20, 2025, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47^th President of the United States. Immigration remained a major topic throughout the campaign trail, with most of the dialogue revolving around migration through the southern border, however, there are several pivotal changes expected within the business immigration sphere.

Overview

President-elect Trump has been vocal on immigration policy throughout his political career and has spent the last few months advising on some of his prospective actions in office, if he won a second term. Broadly, individuals can expect challenges and delays in their immigration processes, however, the overall immigration system is expected to carry on as normal.  Changes to current immigration policy will likely be made instantaneously through presidential proclamations and executive orders (similar to President-elect Trump’s first term- with a number done on his inauguration day alone) and through slower changes to procedures within USCIS, the Department of State, and the Department of Labor.

President-elect Trump’s specific immigration plans should become clearer over the next couples of months, however, based on his last term and some of his reiterated policy plans during his campaign this summer, we can review the following expected changes:

• Travel Restrictions:

  • “Travel bans” and entry restrictions for foreign nationals from specific countries may be implemented again, as soon as the end of January, in addition to increased security checks. President-elect Trump has mentioned several times that he plans to bring back these bans. The applicable countries of the last ban from 2017-2021 included: Chad, Eritrea, Iran, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Libya, Myanmar, Nigeria, North Korea, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tanzania, Venezuela, and Yemen, however, the countries for a new ban have yet to be announced.

  • Extreme vetting at US Embassies and consulates abroad, as well as US borders and ports of entry are expected. This would be in the form of extensive background and security checks for applications. This would result in slower processing abroad and at entry, which delays entry into the US, impacting employment contracts, vacation plans, and family reunification. Extreme vetting may also likely lead to higher rates of refusals.

• Within Business Immigration:

  • Employers should expect an increase in government requests for evidence, an increase in denials, and a significant slow down in the processing of new applications. This was the trend during President-elect Trump’s first term.

  • Workplace checks, including immigration labor enforcement checks, may come into place again.

  • The USCIS policy guidance requiring officers to give deference to previous non-immigrant visa approvals may be rescinded. This would mean that officers must re-examine a case on newly presented merits, with no review of the previous evidence from which an approval was warranted. This would likely result in more Requests for Evidence and denials, despite an employee’s long-term employment in the US, even with one employer.

  • Domestic visa renewal, a program that was ended over 20 years ago, had a pilot program this Spring that was largely successful. It allowed individuals meeting highly specific criteria to apply for visa stamps within the US, without the need to exit the US and visit an embassy or consulate. The previous Trump administration largely limited interview waivers, and we may expect this program (which requires extensive, further building blocks to be established prior to being largely usable) to be paused for another four years under President-elect Trump’s new administration.

  • In addition to the heightened scrutiny at US embassies and consulates, we can expect reduced staff worldwide, as was seen in President-elect Trump’s last term, which resulted in extensive backlogs and visa issuances.

  • President-elect Trump’s “Hire American” policy will take center stage again- with an attempt to restrict legal immigration and increase American hiring in the workplace. This will likely be most apparent through all of the above actions.

• Within humanitarian immigration:

  • DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals) will be compromised again and perhaps rescinded. President-elect Trump has long discussed the termination of the program, which would impact nearly a million individuals and causing mass economic harm. The program currently remains in effect, however, is limited in scope due to a Supreme Court decision.

  • TPS (Temporary Protected Status) is currently in effect for foreign nationals from several countries due to temporary conditions that may impact its nationals, such as ongoing armed conflict and environmental disasters. President-elect Trump has discussed terminating all designations and other parole programs. President-elect Trump previously rescinded TPS designations during his last term and could be expected to do so again. TPS is currently in effect for nationals from the following countries: Afghanistan, Myanmar, Cameroon, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Haiti, Honduras, Nepal, Nicaragua, Somalia, South Sudan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, and Yemen.

  • Broadly, President-elect Trump could push to severely limit refugee numbers and asylum seekers through the southern border which may experience significantly higher security, with increased deportation orders and guidelines.

Conclusion

While some clear predictions can be made, no immigration changes are set in stone prior to President-elect Trump’s inauguration. With around 70 days to go to the inauguration, employers are recommended to spend the next couple of months reviewing their foreign national population’s immigration statuses and planning for the next few years. Stricter immigration enforcement will certainly be in place over the next 4 years, from increased I-9 audits to Department of Labor LCA compliance audits. Employers can prepare by ensuring they are conforming to immigration regulations, to protect both their foreign national population and their business. It’s important to note that several of President-elect Trump’s actions in 2017 to 2021 were challenged extensively in court, and we can predict that the public will act quickly and with fervour again, slowing down particular decisions.

Please feel free to reach out to Aryanah Eghbal ([email protected]) and Mairin Hoban ([email protected]) with questions or concerns regarding the impact of changing immigration policies on your foreign national population. We can strategize with you on how to best prepare for the next four years.

Article by