Effective today, January 20, 2025, the Trump administration will take office for the second time. The last few months have been fraught with debate on most aspects of immigration, including restrictions on legal immigration. While changes can be expected in the near future, the speed and feasibility of their implementation is subject to many competing interests and legal constraints. When Donald Trump last took office in January 2017, there were a number of sweeping actions within the first 100 days, including the controversial Muslim travel ban, increased enforcement and visa vetting, and a significant reduction in refugee admissions. Trump’s 2025 plans appear broader in scope. Many parts take clear inspiration from the contentious Project 2025- a policy initiative drafted by conservative organizations like the Heritage Foundation and issued in April 2024. The document provided a comprehensive blueprint for a republican presidency covering all topics, including immigration.
Outlined below are some of the key issues to keep a close eye on over the next few months. All points addressed remain speculative based on Trump’s campaign promises, past policies, and Project 2025’s framework.
1. Heightened scrutiny on applications:
Applicants and employers may experience increased scrutiny and screening on applications, resulting in the issuance of increased Requests for Evidence, and qualification challenges. Between FY2016 and FY2019 alone, for example, RFE issuance rose from 21% to 60% on H-1Bs, and 32% to 52% for Ls, with the approval rate after RFE falling from 79% to 61%. Under the Biden administration, we have seen approval rates improve due to streamlined processes, policy reversals, and most importantly, a more consistent interpretation by officers of eligibility criteria. We may experience these increased RFE and accompanying denial rates moving forward, particularly with the likely reinstitution of Trump’s Buy American, Hire American policy- encouraging employers to prioritize US citizen workers.
There has been a recent, general negative discourse around the well-established H-1B program- particularly around alleged abuse of the program as a third-party placement hiring method. Measures such as increasing compliance checks, increasing wage requirements, and perhaps reducing the speciality occupations profession list may be implemented over the next few years, affecting how businesses navigate their current hiring practices.
2. Limited appointments and slower processing at U.S. Embassies/Consular Posts Abroad:
During the first Trump administration, visa applicants worldwide experienced more rigorous vetting, an increase in in-person interviews, and an increase in denials. Applicants with previous visa approvals faced heightened scrutiny, leading to significant delays and subsequent denials. Visa interview waivers for eligible applicants were a popular and streamlined method for visa issuance under Obama and Biden- the last Trump administration eliminated the use of most waivers and may do so again. Individuals may expect requests for additional documentation related to their background or eligibility, and a potentially more thorough review of their social media pages for any misrepresentations or inconsistencies.
A government-wide hiring freeze was also implemented in January 2017 which exacerbated the delays by reducing the consular staff available to handle the visa processing. While Trump has not explicitly discussed cutting back visa processing worldwide- Project 2025 proposed a broad reduction in immigration and increased security measures, so delays and higher scrutiny may be inevitable.
3. Expanded Worksite Enforcement Actions and Raids by ICE:
In line with a stricter enforcement of immigration law and targeting of employers who have historically hired undocumented workers- expanded worksite enforcement actions and raids by ICE are likely, in addition to increased audits on labor condition applications within petitions.
The process for worksite enforcement generally starts with an I-9 audit, where ICE reviews an employer’s records to confirm compliance with employment laws in the hiring of employees, and if discrepancies or violations are found, workplace raids or investigations can begin- where ICE physically enters premises to question employees and detail those found without lawful status. These sorts of targeting audits and raids are particularly prevalent and disruptive within the agriculture, hospitality, and construction industries, and often concentrated in certain geographic areas in the US.
ICE can carry out raids of workplaces, public places, or private residences. Individuals may then be placed in detention facilities as removal orders go through immigration courts. This results in displacing millions and raise serious humanitarian and ethical concerns on the impact to communities and families. From an economic standpoint, the expulsion of individuals in these statuses with work authorization could cause ripple effects across industries.
To mitigate potential issues now, employers should prioritize conducting regular professional I-9 audits- as well as providing regular training to HR onboarding teams and ensuring company policies are standardized and organized across their organization.
4. Re-institution of Travel Bans:
It remains uncertain whether Trump will reinstate a travel ban (similar to the 2017 Muslim travel ban), however, his past policies and recent rhetoric suggest it is a strong possibility. The 2017 ban was the subject of widespread controversy and contentious legal challenges, but a revised version of the ban was ultimately upheld by the Supreme Court. A new travel ban could potential expand in scope, including new criteria and targeting additional nations.
5. Mass deportations coupled with the reduction or elimination of humanitarian protections:
Throughout his election campaign, Trump promised the largest domestic deportation operation in US history- covering a broad range of individuals including undocumented immigrants and those under DACA (Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals), TPS (Temporary Protected Status), and other humanitarian parole programmes. The initial focus would likely be on those with criminal records and those already in the removal process, with the scope widened to the larger undocumented population over time.
Trump has also expressed his interest in reinstituting some controversial policies, including Title 42, which allows the government to expel migrants at the border to prevent disease spread. These deportations could be initiated relatively quickly- through executive orders and administrative actions- however, Title 42 specifically would be challenged unless tied to a significant public health crisis (like COVID-19). The financial and staffing logistics would be substantial- it’s likely that the enforcement will be aggressive but not to the level of campaign rhetoric.
Notably, the highest number of removals remains in FY2012, under the Obama administration. Enforcement and deportations under Trump may be aggressive and raise humanitarian and ethical concerns, but it’s unlikely that they will surpass previous levels.
6. “Remain in Mexico”- border restrictions and immediate enforcement:
Trump has repeatedly stated his intention to reinstate the “Remain in Mexico” policy, requiring asylum seekers to remain in Mexico while awaiting an asylum claim. This could be coupled with a declaration of a national emergency at the southern border due to the influx of recent entries. A national emergency warrants the use of the National Guard, allowing the Trump administration to close entry points, restrict admissions, and allocate additional resources to the border- although this would likely face immediate legal challenges. The US-Mexico border wall is expected to continue construction, which will likely be assisted by Republican support in the form of funding through appropriations legislation or the reallocation of federal funds. Besides the affect this will have on asylum processing and border crossings, US-Mexico relations could take a hit.
7. Ending Birthright Citizenship:
Rooted in the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution, the right to US citizenship for those born on US soil (just soli) regardless of their parents’ immigration status has been a contentious issue on the campaign trail. Trump could attempt executive orders limiting or ending this right, however, should expect significant legal and political resistance. Ending birthright citizenship would only be possible through a constitutional amendment, which would require a request by two-thirds of Congress and then ratification by three-fourths of state legislatures- which would be highly improbable.
While only time will tell how exactly the second Trump administration affects US immigration, it is clear that they will work to both reshape current policy and embolden the anti-immigrant sentiment in the US. Many promises were made on the campaign trail- we can expect the following weeks and months to be particularly busy in the form of executive orders and presidential proclamations advancing this agenda.
Please feel free to reach out to Aryanah Eghbal ([email protected]) with questions or concerns regarding the impact of changing immigration policies.
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